Before highlighting those sires which overachieve based on expectations derived from the quality of their book of mares, it might be a good idea to establish what figures an average stallion could reasonably be expected to achieve.
To arrive at this "baseline" it is necessary to take the data for all runners in qualifying races and then determine the average values of these figures for the various categories being measured:
Total runs: 6235
Wins: 720
Placed: 1794 (includes the 720 wins)
Earnings: £11,352,756.44
Runs by runners with BT pedigrees: 2038
This gives an average stallion the expected figures of a SR of 12% with 29% Placed and AEPR of £1820.81 from a 33% BT book of mares.
These average figures increase slightly if we only take into account runners by those stallions with > 30 runs:
SR: 12%
Placed: 30%
AEPR: £1,869.93
BT: 35%
In simple terms, any stallion whose figures out-perform these averages should be viewed positively, and particularly so if their book of mares features less than 1/3 with Black Type:
Sire Efficiency (ranked in order of lack of quality in their respective books)*
3% Dutch Art: 16% SR 31% Placed + AEPR: £1,133.45
5% Captain Rio: 17% SR 37% Placed + AEPR: £1,001.50
5% Kodiac: 16% SR 39% Placed + AEPR: £2,384.54
11% Iffraaj: 15% SR 33% Placed + AEPR: £5,621.59
15% Sixties Icon: 18% SR 33% Placed + AEPR: £889.21
16% Haatef: 16% SR 38% Placed + AEPR: £2,373.18
16% Camacho: 12% SR 32% Placed + AEPR: £2,081.88
20% Acclamation: 16% SR 41% Placed + AEPR: £2,182.26
21% Manduro: 23% SR 49% Placed + AEPR: £1,629.38
21% Intense Focus: 9% SR 21% Placed + AEPR: £2,990.69
24% Pastoral Pursuits: 14% SR 33% Placed + AEPR: £1,230.27
26% Clodovil: 10% SR 45% Placed + AEPR: £2,418.87
28% Footstepsinthesand: 14% SR 30% Placed + AEPR: £1,657.86
29% Champs Elysees: 17% SR 36% Placed + AEPR: £2,027.39
29% Kyllachy: 12% SR 38% Placed + AEPR: £2,537.33
30% Bahamian Bounty: 13% SR 25% Placed + AEPR: £1,993.87
30% Three Valleys: 9% SR 36% Placed + AEPR: £1,163.11
32% Kheleyf: 12% SR 26% Placed + AEPR: £1,381.22
33% Dark Angel: 12% SR 32% Placed + AEPR: £1,966.68
* The order is therefore NOT indicative of relative ability as there is no magic formula for deciding which stallion is the BEST or upgrades their mares to the greatest extent, as their performances vary over a range of different but related values.
From the above list the only sires to out-perform in every category are the following, listed below with their 2013 & 2014 Stud fees and the number of mares they covered in 2013:
Kodiac: 164 coverings at 7,500 euros (now standing at 10,000 euros)
Iffraaj: 74 coverings at 10,000 euros (now standing at 25,000 euros)
Haatef: 16 coverings at 3,000 euros (unchanged)
Camacho: 44 coverings at £2,750 (now standing at 7,500 euros)
Acclamation: 134 coverings at 35,000 euros (unchanged)
Champs Elysees: 51 coverings at £5,000 (unchanged)
Kyllachy: 120 coverings at £12,500 (now standing at £15,000)
Dark Angel: 199 coverings at 12,500 euros (now standing at 27,500 euros)
Of these, Kodiac has now begun to receive the recognition he deserves (with some hefty prices realised at last year's yearling sales) but it will be interesting to see what further improvement he is able to find once he starts to receive better mares. My hunch is that to begin with there will be some disappointed buyers in the interim period, because until his book improves markedly he will still be mainly about quantity rather than quality.
The 1st season sire of real potential value, included on the above list, is of course Champs Elysees who has looked very impressive from limited opportunities and whose only yearlings to go through the ring at Tattersalls Book 1 both went for > 100,000 guineas. He will surely be standing for > £5,000 shortly...
The established stallions on the above list Iffraaj, Acclamation, his son Dark Angel and to a lesser extent perhaps Kyllachy, are already well-regarded as sires of 2yos and this is reflected to an extent in their 2014 stud fees, but the really interesting inclusion on this list for me is Haatef, a son of the mighty Danzig. If you recall the figures from part 1 of this blog, Haatef makes the top 16 amongst qualifying sires in both SR & AEPR, yet much like Camacho had to it appears he might struggle for a while to gain recognition from buyers and breeders, despite standing for just 3,000 euros. He has one fairly well-related colt (Lot 18) entered for the DBS breeze-up sale in April that I at least will be keeping an interested eye on.
We have by now hopefully begun to formulate an idea as to which stallion's progeny might offer value both in terms of betting and at the sales, but it is equally interesting to look at those stallions who, despite hefty stud fees and high quality books of mares, don't really produce on the track; at least, certainly not in terms of 2yos, which is the area of interest after all:
Sire Inefficiency (ranked in order of quality of their respective books)
59% Pivotal: 6% SR 22% Placed + AEPR: £443.90
56% Dalakhani: 4% SR 29% Placed + AEPR: £489.96
53% Lawman: 8% SR 25% Placed + AEPR: £1,176.83
50% Dylan Thomas: 8% SR 18% Placed + AEPR: £488.56
48% Nayef: 6% SR 20% Placed + AEPR: £776.09
48% Exceed And Excel: 11% SR 26% Placed + AEPR: £1,690.72
47% Verglas: 11% SR 15% Placed + AEPR: £937.78
42% Raven's Pass: 6% SR 23% Placed + AEPR: £1,048.71
39% Duke Of Marmalade: 2% SR 15% Placed + AEPR: £356.10
39% Jeremy: 7% SR 27% Placed + AEPR: £596.66
39% Rock Of Gibraltar: 10% SR 27% Placed + AEPR: £965.85
37% Oratorio: 4% SR 12% Placed + AEPR: £809.58
37% Dansili: 7% SR 22% Placed + AEPR: £1,124.57
35% Elnadim: 10% SR 18% Placed + AEPR: £1,107.23
34% Major Cadeaux: 5% SR 17% Placed + AEPR: £457.95
34% Medicean: 4% SR 28% Placed + AEPR: £530.91
33% Intikhab: 7% SR 23% Placed + AEPR: £708.07
Obviously this doesn't mean that in ALL cases these are poor stallions, just that they do not excel at getting 2yos, or at least didn't last year, and because of their high profile their progeny may be overbet in the market as a result. Distance and stamina is obviously a factor as well and you could argue a case for the likes of Nayef and to a lesser extent Dylan Thomas that based on Average Winning Distance (AWD) and Average Furlongs Per Run (AFPR) that they could achieve better results if their progeny are kept to longer trips. Azamour and Authorized are other sires who almost made this list and who also have large gaps between their AWD & AFPR and this also works the other way around with FSS Dandy Man a good example of a sire who excelled when races were being run solely or mainly over the minimum trip early in the season, but who struggled to add to his tally afterwards, and who also almost made this list as a result.
A few probably unwise words about a few NQs...
To finish with I just have some comments about sires that were represented by < 30 qualifying runs in 2013 but who nevertheless caught my attention. They haven't been included in the overall figures as the sample size is too small to be statistically significant but they may be of interest regardless:
Assertive: 11% SR & 32% Placed from a 16% BT book doesn't sound that impressive but it's > the likes of Compton Place, Tagula or Sleeping Indian who all stand for more than £2.5k & attract bigger books.
Dynaformer: Only 15 runs but a 27% SR with 53% Placed & > £4.5k AEPR
Elusive Quality: Only 14 runs but a 29% SR with 71% Placed & > £5.5k AEPR
First Defence: 2 winners of 3 races from limited opportunities for Juddmonte
Hurricane Run: 14% SR & 50% Placed with AEPR of > £2k + Ectot in FRA and yet he stands for just 9,000 euros in GER?
Indian Haven: Only 14 runs but a 21% SR from a 0% BT book and standing for just £2,500 only covered 10 mares in 2013?
Monsun: Only 6 runs but 4 wins & 1 placed. I don't need reminding what the 6th was!
Smart Strike: 92% BT book but only 1 win from 13 runs?
Street Cry: Only 25 runs so just missed the cut but 28% SR & 44% Placed from an 84% BT book
War Front: £44,586.77 AEPR!
Yeats: Oh dear...
Thursday, 27 March 2014
Friday, 21 March 2014
2yo Stallion Stats 2013 part 2
As someone with an unhealthy predilection for e/w betting the most impressive statistic for me about Oasis Dream last year (as discussed in part 1) is the 60% strike rate his 2yo runners have to place for betting purposes. In simple terms it is odds-on that an Oasis Dream juvenile will finish in the first 2 or 3 in any given race they contest. What is perhaps even more interesting though, and the reason why I saved this subject for the 2nd part of this blog, is who finished runner-up behind Oasis Dream on last year's figures:
That's right. Sea The Stars.
I have heard a few comments suggesting that his freshman season was a bit underwhelming so as a big fan of the horse I guess I am keen to test this perception against actual data:
Placed (% of progeny that finish 1st in races of < 5 runners, 1st or 2nd if between 5-7 or 1st, 2nd or 3rd in races of 8+)
60% Oasis Dream
51% Sea The Stars
49% Manduro (only 39 runs)
49% Henrythenavigator (only 37 runs)
48% Galileo
45% Clodovil
44% Sakhee's Secret (only 43 runs)
44% Montjeu (only 34 runs)
41% Acclamation
39% Kodiac
38% Kyllachy
38% New Approach
38% Danehill Dancer
38% Haatef (only 37 runs)
37% Invincible Spirit
37% Mastercraftsman
37% Captain Rio
36% Champs Elysees (only 42 runs)
36% Three Valleys (only 33 runs)
35% Dubawi
35% Shamardal
35% Aqlaam (only 37 runs)
Not too shabby eh? In terms of the 1st crop sires (FSS) it also places him well above Mastercraftsman and Champs Elysees in this category, both of whom had a slightly higher strike-rate (SR) than STS who comes out 3rd best of the qualifying FSS:
FSS (1st crop sires with > 30 qualifying runs ranked by SR)
18% Mastercraftsman
17% Champs Elysees (only 42 runs)
15% Sea The Stars
11% Dandy Man
11% Aqlaam (only 37 runs)
9% Intense Focus
8% Myboycharlie
7% Art Connoisseur (only 43 runs)
6% Captain Gerrard*
5% Bushranger
5% Major Cadeaux (only 41 runs)
* At this point, I wanted to mention that the notion of Captain Gerrard being "champion" anything, be it GB-based, or measured on number of winners, wins, prizemoney won, or whatever, is ABSURD. I have him on 4 wins (one of which was in a seller) whereas in the calendar year he produced 13 "winners" of 22 races in total, which either means his progeny excel on an artificial surface OR that they win a lot of shit races. His stud fee has increased from £3,500 - £4,000 FWIW.
There are also a couple of non-qualifiers (< 30 runs) that are worth mentioning here too in Fastnet Rock and Archipenko who both recorded impressive debut figures from limited opportunities:
Fastnet Rock: 14% SR from 22 runs with 36% Placed
Archipenko: 21% SR from 14 runs with 29% Placed
Regardless of his position relative to the other freshman sires, there is one other category that STS absolutely dominates, however, and it is the most important category of all when assessing a stallion's success relative to opportunity. That is in the quality of the mares that were sent to him in his 1st year at stud.
The dam's side of the pedigree should always be the focus when assessing any individual juvenile as they contribute half of that 2yo's genetic information and yet their quality can range from multiple group 1 winners who have already produced group wining siblings to the juvenile in question, to selling platers who have never produced anything of worth from up to 20 previous foals. In short, the differences in the quality of stallions, and in the 50% of genetic material that they provide, is of FAR less consequence than the ability of the dams, either as runners or as producers.
The difficulty lies in how to accurately assess the quality of a given book of mares using fairly crude black and white figures to express relatively grey data. The system I use is based on the murky concept of Black Type with a few minor alterations. In theory, and somewhat bizarrely in my view in practice as well, Black Type appears in a pedigree where the dam or any siblings to the juvenile in question have finished in the 1st 3 in any pattern race in any country. This includes finishing last of 3 runners, beaten 40 lengths at odds of 100/1 off bottom-weight in a listed handicap over 2 miles in Sweden. This is obviously an extreme example but it highlights the necessity of adjusting official definitions of Black Type for our purposes if we want to create a realistic picture of the quality of a given stallion's book of mares, and the subsequent advantages conferred on his juvenile runners. Which we do.
Therefore, only mares who have been placed for BETTING purposes in group races globally, or in (non-handicap) listed contests in GB, IRE & FRA only, or have produced progeny from ANOTHER stallion that have achieved the same criteria, count in the figures below as Black Type dams:
Black Type (Percentage of runs from runners with BT pedigrees*)
91% Sea The Stars
76% Galileo
73% Cape Cross
71% Montjeu (only 34 runs)
63% Oasis Dream
59% Aqlaam (only 37 runs)
59% Pivotal (only 32 runs)
56% Shamardal
56% Dalakhani
55% High Chaparral
53% Teofilo
53% Lawman
52% Invincible Spirit
52% New Approach
52% Danehill Dancer
50% Dylan Thomas (only 38 runs)
48% Exceed And Excel
48% Nayef
47% Verglas
46% Dubawi
46% Henrythenavigator (only 37 runs)
44% Sakhee's Secret (only 43 runs)
43% Mount Nelson (only 44 runs)
42% Raven's Pass (only 31 runs)
40% Mastercraftsman
* There are always going to be exceptions, such as 1st foals from well-related un-raced mares not counting as "well-bred", and CLEARLY a juvenile with one sibling out of 8 who once finished a well-beaten 3rd at big odds in a 8 runner listed fillies race in the French provinces is not the same as a sibling to a classic winner out of a classic-winning mare, but the overall picture created is valid IMO, and superior to what is quoted in sales catalogues etc...
The opposite of a quality book of mares is obviously of EVEN more interest, especially for betting purposes, as when compared against SR and Placed percentages, it gives the best indication available of which stallions out-perform or "upgrade" their book of mares and potentially, therefore, the likely odds of their runners. This will form the content of Part 3 if you're still with me...
That's right. Sea The Stars.
I have heard a few comments suggesting that his freshman season was a bit underwhelming so as a big fan of the horse I guess I am keen to test this perception against actual data:
Placed (% of progeny that finish 1st in races of < 5 runners, 1st or 2nd if between 5-7 or 1st, 2nd or 3rd in races of 8+)
60% Oasis Dream
51% Sea The Stars
49% Manduro (only 39 runs)
49% Henrythenavigator (only 37 runs)
48% Galileo
45% Clodovil
44% Sakhee's Secret (only 43 runs)
44% Montjeu (only 34 runs)
41% Acclamation
39% Kodiac
38% Kyllachy
38% New Approach
38% Danehill Dancer
38% Haatef (only 37 runs)
37% Invincible Spirit
37% Mastercraftsman
37% Captain Rio
36% Champs Elysees (only 42 runs)
36% Three Valleys (only 33 runs)
35% Dubawi
35% Shamardal
35% Aqlaam (only 37 runs)
Not too shabby eh? In terms of the 1st crop sires (FSS) it also places him well above Mastercraftsman and Champs Elysees in this category, both of whom had a slightly higher strike-rate (SR) than STS who comes out 3rd best of the qualifying FSS:
FSS (1st crop sires with > 30 qualifying runs ranked by SR)
18% Mastercraftsman
17% Champs Elysees (only 42 runs)
15% Sea The Stars
11% Dandy Man
11% Aqlaam (only 37 runs)
9% Intense Focus
8% Myboycharlie
7% Art Connoisseur (only 43 runs)
6% Captain Gerrard*
5% Bushranger
5% Major Cadeaux (only 41 runs)
* At this point, I wanted to mention that the notion of Captain Gerrard being "champion" anything, be it GB-based, or measured on number of winners, wins, prizemoney won, or whatever, is ABSURD. I have him on 4 wins (one of which was in a seller) whereas in the calendar year he produced 13 "winners" of 22 races in total, which either means his progeny excel on an artificial surface OR that they win a lot of shit races. His stud fee has increased from £3,500 - £4,000 FWIW.
There are also a couple of non-qualifiers (< 30 runs) that are worth mentioning here too in Fastnet Rock and Archipenko who both recorded impressive debut figures from limited opportunities:
Fastnet Rock: 14% SR from 22 runs with 36% Placed
Archipenko: 21% SR from 14 runs with 29% Placed
Regardless of his position relative to the other freshman sires, there is one other category that STS absolutely dominates, however, and it is the most important category of all when assessing a stallion's success relative to opportunity. That is in the quality of the mares that were sent to him in his 1st year at stud.
The dam's side of the pedigree should always be the focus when assessing any individual juvenile as they contribute half of that 2yo's genetic information and yet their quality can range from multiple group 1 winners who have already produced group wining siblings to the juvenile in question, to selling platers who have never produced anything of worth from up to 20 previous foals. In short, the differences in the quality of stallions, and in the 50% of genetic material that they provide, is of FAR less consequence than the ability of the dams, either as runners or as producers.
The difficulty lies in how to accurately assess the quality of a given book of mares using fairly crude black and white figures to express relatively grey data. The system I use is based on the murky concept of Black Type with a few minor alterations. In theory, and somewhat bizarrely in my view in practice as well, Black Type appears in a pedigree where the dam or any siblings to the juvenile in question have finished in the 1st 3 in any pattern race in any country. This includes finishing last of 3 runners, beaten 40 lengths at odds of 100/1 off bottom-weight in a listed handicap over 2 miles in Sweden. This is obviously an extreme example but it highlights the necessity of adjusting official definitions of Black Type for our purposes if we want to create a realistic picture of the quality of a given stallion's book of mares, and the subsequent advantages conferred on his juvenile runners. Which we do.
Therefore, only mares who have been placed for BETTING purposes in group races globally, or in (non-handicap) listed contests in GB, IRE & FRA only, or have produced progeny from ANOTHER stallion that have achieved the same criteria, count in the figures below as Black Type dams:
Black Type (Percentage of runs from runners with BT pedigrees*)
91% Sea The Stars
76% Galileo
73% Cape Cross
71% Montjeu (only 34 runs)
63% Oasis Dream
59% Aqlaam (only 37 runs)
59% Pivotal (only 32 runs)
56% Shamardal
56% Dalakhani
55% High Chaparral
53% Teofilo
53% Lawman
52% Invincible Spirit
52% New Approach
52% Danehill Dancer
50% Dylan Thomas (only 38 runs)
48% Exceed And Excel
48% Nayef
47% Verglas
46% Dubawi
46% Henrythenavigator (only 37 runs)
44% Sakhee's Secret (only 43 runs)
43% Mount Nelson (only 44 runs)
42% Raven's Pass (only 31 runs)
40% Mastercraftsman
* There are always going to be exceptions, such as 1st foals from well-related un-raced mares not counting as "well-bred", and CLEARLY a juvenile with one sibling out of 8 who once finished a well-beaten 3rd at big odds in a 8 runner listed fillies race in the French provinces is not the same as a sibling to a classic winner out of a classic-winning mare, but the overall picture created is valid IMO, and superior to what is quoted in sales catalogues etc...
The opposite of a quality book of mares is obviously of EVEN more interest, especially for betting purposes, as when compared against SR and Placed percentages, it gives the best indication available of which stallions out-perform or "upgrade" their book of mares and potentially, therefore, the likely odds of their runners. This will form the content of Part 3 if you're still with me...
Wednesday, 5 March 2014
2yo Stallion Stats 2013 part 1
I was going to just tweet these findings but there's quite a lot of data for 140 characters at a time so I've gone and written a blog instead which is a sure sign that I'm taking this MUCH too seriously!
Last year I made a decision that rather than relying on the available statistics provided by the various online databases I would compile my own data from the juvenile turf campaign in order to assess the relative merits of the sires with 2yo runners in GB & IRE. The impetus for this came mainly from me having too much time on my hands but was also due to a growing frustration with the statistical claims of the breeding industry PR machines and the generally inadequate means of measuring a stallion's success without taking into account opportunity.
In short the number of winners by a sire in a given year is broadly irrelevant without referencing the quality of his book of mares, the size of his crop, his number of runners, their number of runs and the grade of races won etc... Ranking stallions based on prizemoney earned by their progeny is similarly fraught with danger with the advent of sales races and the bloated winnings available for group races these days, and I have very little faith in the concept of ratings be they OR, TFR or RPR so rather than attempting to confer "champion" status on any particular stallion I'm just going to present some figures with some explanatory notes to help flesh out the perception of a given sire and to see if we can become better punters as a result of this information.
A few notes about the figures firstly. They only include races run on turf in GB & IRE that are run off level-weights. Nothing against the AW but it never ends so there is no logic to any cut-off point for inclusion in overall statistics; plus it cuts down on my workload and gives me some time off in the winter. It's also a pile of shit clearly. Nurseries are out as they are not a level playing field in terms of differences in weight carried by the progeny of different sires. This also rules out Maiden Auction races which are the weakest type of maidens anyway, and obviously excludes claiming races as well. Sellers are fine though! A few of the big sales races are also excluded (if weight carried is linked to sales price) which is a shame on the one hand as these races are targeted by decent types, but it does help to reduce the prizemoney distortion in the figures. A related weakness of the data, however, is the far better prizemoney on offer in IRE compared to GB which distorts the figures for stallions whose progeny mainly run solely in either country.
Having said I wasn't going to elect a champion sire I'm going to have to begin with Oasis Dream because I think some people might not realise just how much better he is than the rest:
Strike Rate: 28% based on number of wins from qualifying runs. That's roughly a 5/2 shot which is ridiculous. Galileo is next best on 23%
Prize Money: more than £800k last year* (Galileo is again next best with < £525k) with Average Earnings Per Run (AEPR) of > £9k when most maidens in GB are worth < £3k to the winner!
Placed: 60% of qualifying runs by his progeny were in the frame for betting purposes. That's a 4/6 shot to place!
* One caveat is that on one October afternoon in Newmarket his progeny walked off with both of the big pots offered up in the Tattersalls Millions races, but even without these earnings he'd still be in the top 5 without having had a standout performer to pick up any hefty purses in group contests.
The following figures are for stallions with > 30 qualifying turf runs in GB & IRE in 2013:
Strike Rate (obviously this % is more significant with a higher no. of qualifying runs)
28% Oasis Dream
23% Galileo
23% Manduro (only 39 runs)
19% Dubawi
19% Henrythenavigator (only 37 runs)
18% Mastercraftsman
18% Montjeu (only 34 runs)
18% Sixties Icon (only 33 runs)
17% Invincible Spirit
17% Captain Rio
17% Champs Elysees (only 42 runs)
16% Acclamation
16% Kodiac
16% Dutch Art
16% Danehill Dancer
16% Haatef (only 37 runs)
AEPR (Average Earnings Per Run)
£9,302.61 Oasis Dream (see above comments)
£6,876.67 Henrythenavigator (only 37 runs)*
£5,621.59 Iffraaj**
£4,799.71 Galileo
£3,647,57 Mastercraftsman
£3,447.46 Dubawi
£3,259.60 Montjeu (only 34 runs & £62,102 of £110,826 is Geoffrey Chaucer)
£2,992.53 Sakhee's Secret (only 43 runs & £107,985 of £128,679 is Thunder Strike)
£2,990.69 Intense Focus (£249,383 of £361,874 is Astaire)
£2,598.23 Holy Roman Emperor
£2,577.04 Invincible Spirit
£2,537.33 Kyllachy (£85,211 of £172,539 is Supplicant)
£2,418.87 Clodovil
£2,384.54 Kodiac (£162,352 of £352,913 is Haikbidiac)
£2,373.18 Haatef (only 37 runs & £40,155 of £87,808 is Treaty Of Paris)
£2,342.78 Mount Nelson (only 44 runs & £91,361 of £103,082 is Berkshire)
* £189,882 out of £254,437 total earnings are accounted for by Sudirman. The rigor of all of these figures could be improved by removing the highest individual earner for each sire but I will mention where there is any glaring distortion.
** £239,054 of £511,565 is Rizeena & a further £112,343 is Chriselliam although this would've been even > if it included Rizeena's Prix Morny 3rd & Chriselliam's BC win. Targets in FRA are not reflected in the data and similarly French raiders can distort the figures such as Vorda by Orpen although he is a non-qualifier anyway with < 30 runs. On the other hand, just < half of Dansili's earnings came through Miss France's one run at HQ!
Last year I made a decision that rather than relying on the available statistics provided by the various online databases I would compile my own data from the juvenile turf campaign in order to assess the relative merits of the sires with 2yo runners in GB & IRE. The impetus for this came mainly from me having too much time on my hands but was also due to a growing frustration with the statistical claims of the breeding industry PR machines and the generally inadequate means of measuring a stallion's success without taking into account opportunity.
In short the number of winners by a sire in a given year is broadly irrelevant without referencing the quality of his book of mares, the size of his crop, his number of runners, their number of runs and the grade of races won etc... Ranking stallions based on prizemoney earned by their progeny is similarly fraught with danger with the advent of sales races and the bloated winnings available for group races these days, and I have very little faith in the concept of ratings be they OR, TFR or RPR so rather than attempting to confer "champion" status on any particular stallion I'm just going to present some figures with some explanatory notes to help flesh out the perception of a given sire and to see if we can become better punters as a result of this information.
A few notes about the figures firstly. They only include races run on turf in GB & IRE that are run off level-weights. Nothing against the AW but it never ends so there is no logic to any cut-off point for inclusion in overall statistics; plus it cuts down on my workload and gives me some time off in the winter. It's also a pile of shit clearly. Nurseries are out as they are not a level playing field in terms of differences in weight carried by the progeny of different sires. This also rules out Maiden Auction races which are the weakest type of maidens anyway, and obviously excludes claiming races as well. Sellers are fine though! A few of the big sales races are also excluded (if weight carried is linked to sales price) which is a shame on the one hand as these races are targeted by decent types, but it does help to reduce the prizemoney distortion in the figures. A related weakness of the data, however, is the far better prizemoney on offer in IRE compared to GB which distorts the figures for stallions whose progeny mainly run solely in either country.
Having said I wasn't going to elect a champion sire I'm going to have to begin with Oasis Dream because I think some people might not realise just how much better he is than the rest:
Strike Rate: 28% based on number of wins from qualifying runs. That's roughly a 5/2 shot which is ridiculous. Galileo is next best on 23%
Prize Money: more than £800k last year* (Galileo is again next best with < £525k) with Average Earnings Per Run (AEPR) of > £9k when most maidens in GB are worth < £3k to the winner!
Placed: 60% of qualifying runs by his progeny were in the frame for betting purposes. That's a 4/6 shot to place!
* One caveat is that on one October afternoon in Newmarket his progeny walked off with both of the big pots offered up in the Tattersalls Millions races, but even without these earnings he'd still be in the top 5 without having had a standout performer to pick up any hefty purses in group contests.
The following figures are for stallions with > 30 qualifying turf runs in GB & IRE in 2013:
Strike Rate (obviously this % is more significant with a higher no. of qualifying runs)
28% Oasis Dream
23% Galileo
23% Manduro (only 39 runs)
19% Dubawi
19% Henrythenavigator (only 37 runs)
18% Mastercraftsman
18% Montjeu (only 34 runs)
18% Sixties Icon (only 33 runs)
17% Invincible Spirit
17% Captain Rio
17% Champs Elysees (only 42 runs)
16% Acclamation
16% Kodiac
16% Dutch Art
16% Danehill Dancer
16% Haatef (only 37 runs)
AEPR (Average Earnings Per Run)
£9,302.61 Oasis Dream (see above comments)
£6,876.67 Henrythenavigator (only 37 runs)*
£5,621.59 Iffraaj**
£4,799.71 Galileo
£3,647,57 Mastercraftsman
£3,447.46 Dubawi
£3,259.60 Montjeu (only 34 runs & £62,102 of £110,826 is Geoffrey Chaucer)
£2,992.53 Sakhee's Secret (only 43 runs & £107,985 of £128,679 is Thunder Strike)
£2,990.69 Intense Focus (£249,383 of £361,874 is Astaire)
£2,598.23 Holy Roman Emperor
£2,577.04 Invincible Spirit
£2,537.33 Kyllachy (£85,211 of £172,539 is Supplicant)
£2,418.87 Clodovil
£2,384.54 Kodiac (£162,352 of £352,913 is Haikbidiac)
£2,373.18 Haatef (only 37 runs & £40,155 of £87,808 is Treaty Of Paris)
£2,342.78 Mount Nelson (only 44 runs & £91,361 of £103,082 is Berkshire)
* £189,882 out of £254,437 total earnings are accounted for by Sudirman. The rigor of all of these figures could be improved by removing the highest individual earner for each sire but I will mention where there is any glaring distortion.
** £239,054 of £511,565 is Rizeena & a further £112,343 is Chriselliam although this would've been even > if it included Rizeena's Prix Morny 3rd & Chriselliam's BC win. Targets in FRA are not reflected in the data and similarly French raiders can distort the figures such as Vorda by Orpen although he is a non-qualifier anyway with < 30 runs. On the other hand, just < half of Dansili's earnings came through Miss France's one run at HQ!
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