Before highlighting those sires which overachieve based on expectations derived from the quality of their book of mares, it might be a good idea to establish what figures an average stallion could reasonably be expected to achieve.
To arrive at this "baseline" it is necessary to take the data for all runners in qualifying races and then determine the average values of these figures for the various categories being measured:
Total runs: 6235
Wins: 720
Placed: 1794 (includes the 720 wins)
Earnings: £11,352,756.44
Runs by runners with BT pedigrees: 2038
This gives an average stallion the expected figures of a SR of 12% with 29% Placed and AEPR of £1820.81 from a 33% BT book of mares.
These average figures increase slightly if we only take into account runners by those stallions with > 30 runs:
SR: 12%
Placed: 30%
AEPR: £1,869.93
BT: 35%
In simple terms, any stallion whose figures out-perform these averages should be viewed positively, and particularly so if their book of mares features less than 1/3 with Black Type:
Sire Efficiency (ranked in order of lack of quality in their respective books)*
3% Dutch Art: 16% SR 31% Placed + AEPR: £1,133.45
5% Captain Rio: 17% SR 37% Placed + AEPR: £1,001.50
5% Kodiac: 16% SR 39% Placed + AEPR: £2,384.54
11% Iffraaj: 15% SR 33% Placed + AEPR: £5,621.59
15% Sixties Icon: 18% SR 33% Placed + AEPR: £889.21
16% Haatef: 16% SR 38% Placed + AEPR: £2,373.18
16% Camacho: 12% SR 32% Placed + AEPR: £2,081.88
20% Acclamation: 16% SR 41% Placed + AEPR: £2,182.26
21% Manduro: 23% SR 49% Placed + AEPR: £1,629.38
21% Intense Focus: 9% SR 21% Placed + AEPR: £2,990.69
24% Pastoral Pursuits: 14% SR 33% Placed + AEPR: £1,230.27
26% Clodovil: 10% SR 45% Placed + AEPR: £2,418.87
28% Footstepsinthesand: 14% SR 30% Placed + AEPR: £1,657.86
29% Champs Elysees: 17% SR 36% Placed + AEPR: £2,027.39
29% Kyllachy: 12% SR 38% Placed + AEPR: £2,537.33
30% Bahamian Bounty: 13% SR 25% Placed + AEPR: £1,993.87
30% Three Valleys: 9% SR 36% Placed + AEPR: £1,163.11
32% Kheleyf: 12% SR 26% Placed + AEPR: £1,381.22
33% Dark Angel: 12% SR 32% Placed + AEPR: £1,966.68
* The order is therefore NOT indicative of relative ability as there is no magic formula for deciding which stallion is the BEST or upgrades their mares to the greatest extent, as their performances vary over a range of different but related values.
From the above list the only sires to out-perform in every category are the following, listed below with their 2013 & 2014 Stud fees and the number of mares they covered in 2013:
Kodiac: 164 coverings at 7,500 euros (now standing at 10,000 euros)
Iffraaj: 74 coverings at 10,000 euros (now standing at 25,000 euros)
Haatef: 16 coverings at 3,000 euros (unchanged)
Camacho: 44 coverings at £2,750 (now standing at 7,500 euros)
Acclamation: 134 coverings at 35,000 euros (unchanged)
Champs Elysees: 51 coverings at £5,000 (unchanged)
Kyllachy: 120 coverings at £12,500 (now standing at £15,000)
Dark Angel: 199 coverings at 12,500 euros (now standing at 27,500 euros)
Of these, Kodiac has now begun to receive the recognition he deserves (with some hefty prices realised at last year's yearling sales) but it will be interesting to see what further improvement he is able to find once he starts to receive better mares. My hunch is that to begin with there will be some disappointed buyers in the interim period, because until his book improves markedly he will still be mainly about quantity rather than quality.
The 1st season sire of real potential value, included on the above list, is of course Champs Elysees who has looked very impressive from limited opportunities and whose only yearlings to go through the ring at Tattersalls Book 1 both went for > 100,000 guineas. He will surely be standing for > £5,000 shortly...
The established stallions on the above list Iffraaj, Acclamation, his son Dark Angel and to a lesser extent perhaps Kyllachy, are already well-regarded as sires of 2yos and this is reflected to an extent in their 2014 stud fees, but the really interesting inclusion on this list for me is Haatef, a son of the mighty Danzig. If you recall the figures from part 1 of this blog, Haatef makes the top 16 amongst qualifying sires in both SR & AEPR, yet much like Camacho had to it appears he might struggle for a while to gain recognition from buyers and breeders, despite standing for just 3,000 euros. He has one fairly well-related colt (Lot 18) entered for the DBS breeze-up sale in April that I at least will be keeping an interested eye on.
We have by now hopefully begun to formulate an idea as to which stallion's progeny might offer value both in terms of betting and at the sales, but it is equally interesting to look at those stallions who, despite hefty stud fees and high quality books of mares, don't really produce on the track; at least, certainly not in terms of 2yos, which is the area of interest after all:
Sire Inefficiency (ranked in order of quality of their respective books)
59% Pivotal: 6% SR 22% Placed + AEPR: £443.90
56% Dalakhani: 4% SR 29% Placed + AEPR: £489.96
53% Lawman: 8% SR 25% Placed + AEPR: £1,176.83
50% Dylan Thomas: 8% SR 18% Placed + AEPR: £488.56
48% Nayef: 6% SR 20% Placed + AEPR: £776.09
48% Exceed And Excel: 11% SR 26% Placed + AEPR: £1,690.72
47% Verglas: 11% SR 15% Placed + AEPR: £937.78
42% Raven's Pass: 6% SR 23% Placed + AEPR: £1,048.71
39% Duke Of Marmalade: 2% SR 15% Placed + AEPR: £356.10
39% Jeremy: 7% SR 27% Placed + AEPR: £596.66
39% Rock Of Gibraltar: 10% SR 27% Placed + AEPR: £965.85
37% Oratorio: 4% SR 12% Placed + AEPR: £809.58
37% Dansili: 7% SR 22% Placed + AEPR: £1,124.57
35% Elnadim: 10% SR 18% Placed + AEPR: £1,107.23
34% Major Cadeaux: 5% SR 17% Placed + AEPR: £457.95
34% Medicean: 4% SR 28% Placed + AEPR: £530.91
33% Intikhab: 7% SR 23% Placed + AEPR: £708.07
Obviously this doesn't mean that in ALL cases these are poor stallions, just that they do not excel at getting 2yos, or at least didn't last year, and because of their high profile their progeny may be overbet in the market as a result. Distance and stamina is obviously a factor as well and you could argue a case for the likes of Nayef and to a lesser extent Dylan Thomas that based on Average Winning Distance (AWD) and Average Furlongs Per Run (AFPR) that they could achieve better results if their progeny are kept to longer trips. Azamour and Authorized are other sires who almost made this list and who also have large gaps between their AWD & AFPR and this also works the other way around with FSS Dandy Man a good example of a sire who excelled when races were being run solely or mainly over the minimum trip early in the season, but who struggled to add to his tally afterwards, and who also almost made this list as a result.
A few probably unwise words about a few NQs...
To finish with I just have some comments about sires that were represented by < 30 qualifying runs in 2013 but who nevertheless caught my attention. They haven't been included in the overall figures as the sample size is too small to be statistically significant but they may be of interest regardless:
Assertive: 11% SR & 32% Placed from a 16% BT book doesn't sound that impressive but it's > the likes of Compton Place, Tagula or Sleeping Indian who all stand for more than £2.5k & attract bigger books.
Dynaformer: Only 15 runs but a 27% SR with 53% Placed & > £4.5k AEPR
Elusive Quality: Only 14 runs but a 29% SR with 71% Placed & > £5.5k AEPR
First Defence: 2 winners of 3 races from limited opportunities for Juddmonte
Hurricane Run: 14% SR & 50% Placed with AEPR of > £2k + Ectot in FRA and yet he stands for just 9,000 euros in GER?
Indian Haven: Only 14 runs but a 21% SR from a 0% BT book and standing for just £2,500 only covered 10 mares in 2013?
Monsun: Only 6 runs but 4 wins & 1 placed. I don't need reminding what the 6th was!
Smart Strike: 92% BT book but only 1 win from 13 runs?
Street Cry: Only 25 runs so just missed the cut but 28% SR & 44% Placed from an 84% BT book
War Front: £44,586.77 AEPR!
Yeats: Oh dear...
No comments:
Post a Comment