I was going to just tweet these findings but there's quite a lot of data for 140 characters at a time so I've gone and written a blog instead which is a sure sign that I'm taking this MUCH too seriously!
Last year I made a decision that rather than relying on the available statistics provided by the various online databases I would compile my own data from the juvenile turf campaign in order to assess the relative merits of the sires with 2yo runners in GB & IRE. The impetus for this came mainly from me having too much time on my hands but was also due to a growing frustration with the statistical claims of the breeding industry PR machines and the generally inadequate means of measuring a stallion's success without taking into account opportunity.
In short the number of winners by a sire in a given year is broadly irrelevant without referencing the quality of his book of mares, the size of his crop, his number of runners, their number of runs and the grade of races won etc... Ranking stallions based on prizemoney earned by their progeny is similarly fraught with danger with the advent of sales races and the bloated winnings available for group races these days, and I have very little faith in the concept of ratings be they OR, TFR or RPR so rather than attempting to confer "champion" status on any particular stallion I'm just going to present some figures with some explanatory notes to help flesh out the perception of a given sire and to see if we can become better punters as a result of this information.
A few notes about the figures firstly. They only include races run on turf in GB & IRE that are run off level-weights. Nothing against the AW but it never ends so there is no logic to any cut-off point for inclusion in overall statistics; plus it cuts down on my workload and gives me some time off in the winter. It's also a pile of shit clearly. Nurseries are out as they are not a level playing field in terms of differences in weight carried by the progeny of different sires. This also rules out Maiden Auction races which are the weakest type of maidens anyway, and obviously excludes claiming races as well. Sellers are fine though! A few of the big sales races are also excluded (if weight carried is linked to sales price) which is a shame on the one hand as these races are targeted by decent types, but it does help to reduce the prizemoney distortion in the figures. A related weakness of the data, however, is the far better prizemoney on offer in IRE compared to GB which distorts the figures for stallions whose progeny mainly run solely in either country.
Having said I wasn't going to elect a champion sire I'm going to have to begin with Oasis Dream because I think some people might not realise just how much better he is than the rest:
Strike Rate: 28% based on number of wins from qualifying runs. That's roughly a 5/2 shot which is ridiculous. Galileo is next best on 23%
Prize Money: more than £800k last year* (Galileo is again next best with < £525k) with Average Earnings Per Run (AEPR) of > £9k when most maidens in GB are worth < £3k to the winner!
Placed: 60% of qualifying runs by his progeny were in the frame for betting purposes. That's a 4/6 shot to place!
* One caveat is that on one October afternoon in Newmarket his progeny walked off with both of the big pots offered up in the Tattersalls Millions races, but even without these earnings he'd still be in the top 5 without having had a standout performer to pick up any hefty purses in group contests.
The following figures are for stallions with > 30 qualifying turf runs in GB & IRE in 2013:
Strike Rate (obviously this % is more significant with a higher no. of qualifying runs)
28% Oasis Dream
23% Galileo
23% Manduro (only 39 runs)
19% Dubawi
19% Henrythenavigator (only 37 runs)
18% Mastercraftsman
18% Montjeu (only 34 runs)
18% Sixties Icon (only 33 runs)
17% Invincible Spirit
17% Captain Rio
17% Champs Elysees (only 42 runs)
16% Acclamation
16% Kodiac
16% Dutch Art
16% Danehill Dancer
16% Haatef (only 37 runs)
AEPR (Average Earnings Per Run)
£9,302.61 Oasis Dream (see above comments)
£6,876.67 Henrythenavigator (only 37 runs)*
£5,621.59 Iffraaj**
£4,799.71 Galileo
£3,647,57 Mastercraftsman
£3,447.46 Dubawi
£3,259.60 Montjeu (only 34 runs & £62,102 of £110,826 is Geoffrey Chaucer)
£2,992.53 Sakhee's Secret (only 43 runs & £107,985 of £128,679 is Thunder Strike)
£2,990.69 Intense Focus (£249,383 of £361,874 is Astaire)
£2,598.23 Holy Roman Emperor
£2,577.04 Invincible Spirit
£2,537.33 Kyllachy (£85,211 of £172,539 is Supplicant)
£2,418.87 Clodovil
£2,384.54 Kodiac (£162,352 of £352,913 is Haikbidiac)
£2,373.18 Haatef (only 37 runs & £40,155 of £87,808 is Treaty Of Paris)
£2,342.78 Mount Nelson (only 44 runs & £91,361 of £103,082 is Berkshire)
* £189,882 out of £254,437 total earnings are accounted for by Sudirman. The rigor of all of these figures could be improved by removing the highest individual earner for each sire but I will mention where there is any glaring distortion.
** £239,054 of £511,565 is Rizeena & a further £112,343 is Chriselliam although this would've been even > if it included Rizeena's Prix Morny 3rd & Chriselliam's BC win. Targets in FRA are not reflected in the data and similarly French raiders can distort the figures such as Vorda by Orpen although he is a non-qualifier anyway with < 30 runs. On the other hand, just < half of Dansili's earnings came through Miss France's one run at HQ!
No comments:
Post a Comment