2014 FSS Half-Term Report

The end of the July Festival at HQ is a good time to try & draw an accurate picture of the relative success thus far of the stallions whose 1st crops have appeared on the racecourse in GB & IRE in 2014.

The early buzz was all about Zebedee, who I have been taking on all year as a result, but to be fair it turns out he HAS actually managed to sire a goodun in July Stakes winner Ivawood. He made no impression at Royal Ascot however, where FSS dominated the 2yo races, and his overall figures continue to fall below the expected returns of the average stallion, especially if you remove his top performer (who has been responsible for > 1/2 his earnings) from the results.

The baseline figures for all 2yo sires at this halfway point in the calendar are as follows:

Strike Rate (SR): 12%
Average Earnings Per Run (AEPR): £1,333.27
Black Type Dams: 30%
Placed (incl. Winners): 30%
Average Furlongs Per Run (AFPR): 5.8
Average Winning Distance (AWD): 5.7

Zebedee's figures from a FSS leading 84 qualifying (ie. non-Maiden Auction/Nursery/Claiming) runs are as follows:

SR: 8% AEPR: £1,147.44 BT: 32% Placed: 29% AFPR: 5.3 AWD: 5.3

At this point he is thus below par in every category & despite Ivawood's success over 6f there has to be a concern that these figures will drop further as the season progresses with a lower % of maidens run over the minimum trip.

The leading FSS (with > 20 runs) in terms of Strike Rate are as follows:

23% Showcasing (52 runs)
21% Paco Boy (42 runs)
21% Rip Van Winkle (24 runs)
20% Lope De Vega (25 runs)
17% Fast Company (59 runs)

AEPR (Highest Earner)

£3,804.92 Rip Van Winkle (I Am Beautiful)
£2,868.80 Showcasing (Cappella Sansevero)
£2,061.40 Fast Company (Baitha Alga)
£1,662.56 Paco Boy (Beacon)
£1,626.68 Lope De Vega (Lupie)

Placed (for betting purposes incl. Winners)

52% Showcasing
46% Rip Van Winkle
43% Paco Boy
41% Hellvelyn (27 runs)
40% Lope de Vega

The FSS with the highest % of runs out of BT Dams are as follows:

64% Lope De Vega
61% Makfi (23 runs)
55% Arcano (38 runs)
54% Equiano (54 runs)
54% Rip Van Winkle

So apart from Zebedee, whose only crime is to have been over-hyped at the start of the year, the other FSS to be wary of are as follows:

Approve - received a timely boost with a listed success in IRE on the eve of this blog but his overall figures are similar (9% SR) to that of Zebedee from a slightly better (38% BT) initial book of mares.

Arcano - has produced reasonable results (13% SR) thus far but you may have expected more from him considering the quality of mares he was sent & the prices some of his yearlings have reached.

Equiano - an utter flop as far as I am concerned. Has produced worse results (7% SR) than Zebedee from a far superior book of mares & will struggle further with fewer 5f maidens remaining.

Makfi - like Arcano he has produced decent results (13% SR), and from limited opportunities, but you might have expected more from him judged on the % of his runners from BT performers/producers.

Stimulation - bit harsh considering his initial book has contained just 5% BT runners to date but his SR is only 3% although he has produced one useful performer in Union Rose who was placed at Royal Ascot.

Oh yes. Apparently Starspangledbanner is doing okay too...