2016 2YO Sales Races part 1

My focus this year will be on the crop of juveniles representing First Season Sires (FSS) and I will be writing a more in-depth blog on these sires' prospects over the next month in time for the long-awaited start of the turf Flat season on April 2nd.

In the meantime I have decided to have a go at nailing the advance Tricast in each of the 2YO sales races for which the early entries are already available. These races are as follows:

18th August 2016 - DBS Premier Yearling Stakes at York
http://bloodstock.racingpost.com/horses2/cards/card.sd?race_id=641436&r_date=2016-08-18&big_race=Y&raceTabs=#raceTabs=lc_

11th September 2016 - Tattersalls Ireland Super Auction Sale Stakes at the Curragh
http://info.hri-racing.ie/Content/RAS/entries/Microsoft_Word__2016_ONOR252.PDF

1st October 2016 - Tattersalls October Auction Stakes at Newmarket
http://bloodstock.racingpost.com/horses2/cards/card.sd?race_id=641508&r_date=2016-10-01&big_race=Y&raceTabs=#raceTabs=lc_

Each of these races are only open to yearlings sold at that company's respective sale in 2015 & of the 561 entries across the 3 races 153 are representatives of FSS. The corresponding races last year each featured just 2 representatives of FSS in the final declared fields however so I don't especially like my chances; though this did include the 2nd placed horse at HQ (more of whom in Part 3).

DBS Premier Yearling Stakes

The 1st of the sales races is also the only one to be run off level weights, whereas both of the Tattersalls races provide allowances for horses that were purchased for lower amounts as yearlings. This ought to favour the better bred & thus usually more expensive horses in the field although there are penalties for previous winners of races above a certain class. Last year the winner (Tasleet) successfully carried this 5lb penalty when winning at 2/1fav as did the 4th (Delizia) one of only 2 fillies in the field.

The winner, who at £52k was the 5th most expensive yearling in the field, was 8lbs clear on OR however so was officially 3lbs well-in with the 5th placed horse (Orvar - £60k) who was sent off 8/1 co 2nd fav alongside the most expensive horse in the field (Projection - £90k) who finished 7th & the cheapest (Excessable - £6k) who beat just 2 home. The 2 horses in question were the other penalised runner in the field (Lathom) who was sent off the 10/1 5th fav & one of the 2 representatives of FSS (Rockley Point by Canford Cliffs). The other runner representing a FSS finished 6th (Mickey by Zoffany) having only made his debut a fortnight prior to the race.

York Result
20 Aug 2015

1:55 » DBS Premier Yearling Stakes

• (Class 2) (2yo) 6f Good To Soft
• £147,540.00, £59,040.00, £29,520.00, £14,730.00, £7,380.00, £7,380.00, £7,380.00, £7,380.00, £7,380.00, £7,380.00

			HORSE/SP	AGE	WGT	TRAINER/JOCKEY	OR	TS	RPR	RATED
«	1 14		Tasleet 2/1F	2	9-2	William Haggas	109	*	*	—	»
			b c Showcasing - Bird Key (Cadeaux Genereux)			Paul Hanagan
			Tracked leaders, headway 2f out, not much room and switched right over 1f out, soon ridden and stayed on well to lead last 100yds (tchd 9/4 in places)
«	2 12	½	Ferryover 20/1	2	8-11	Kevin Ryan	81	*	*	—	»
			ch c Pastoral Pursuits - Charlotte Vale (Pivotal)			Jamie Spencer
			Held up towards rear, headway over 2f out, soon switched right, ridden well over 1f out, stayed on strongly entering final furlong, soon driven and edged left, kept on
«	3 8	nk	Still On Top 25/1	2	8-11 h1	Tim Easterby	77	*	*	—	»
			b c Royal Applause - Poulaine Bleue (Bertolini)			Phillip Makin
			Held up in touch, headway well over 1f out, ridden and edged right entering final furlong, soon driven and kept on well towards finish
«	4 3	hd	Delizia (IRE) 14/1	2	8-11	Mark Johnston	86	*	*	—	»
			b f Dark Angel (IRE) - Jo Bo Bo (IRE) (Whipper)			Silvestre De Sousa
			Prominent, headway and close up 2f out, ridden to lead over 1f out, driven inside final furlong, headed and weakened last 100yds
«	5 9	1	Orvar (IRE) 8/1	2	8-11	Richard Hannon	101	*	*	—	»
			b c Dandy Man (IRE) - Roskeen (IRE) (Grand Lodge)			Pat Dobbs
			Prominent, close up 2f out, soon ridden and every chance, driven and kept on same pace final furlong
«	6 2	¾	Mickey (IRE) 40/1	2	8-11	Tom Dascombe	—	*	*	—
			b c Zoffany (IRE) - Enchantment (Compton Place)			Richard Kingscote
			Prominent, effort and close up 2f out, soon ridden and weakened inside final furlong (op 50/1 tchd 40/1)
«	7 7	1½	Projection 8/1	2	8-11	Roger Charlton	—	*	*	—	»
			b g Acclamation - Spotlight (Dr Fong)			James Doyle
			Chased leaders, ridden along well over 1f out, gradually weakened entering final furlong (op 7/1 tchd 8/1)
«	8 13	½	General Alexander (IRE) 50/1	2	8-11	Brian Ellison	76	*	*	—	»
			gr g Zebedee - Alexander Express (IRE) (Sri Pekan)			Ben Curtis
			In rear, behind and ridden halfway, switched right 2f out, stayed on well under pressure approaching final furlong, nearest finish
«	9 15	nk	Mr Lupton (IRE) 14/1	2	8-11	Richard Fahey	91	*	*	—	»
			ch g Elnadim (USA) - Chiloe Wigeon (IRE) (Docksider)			Patrick Mathers
			Towards rear, headway 2f out, staying on when not much room and hampered entering final furlong, kept on (op 16/1 tchd 14/1)
«	10 4	nse	Top Of The Bank 25/1	2	8-11	Kevin Ryan	83	*	*	—	»
			b g Piccolo - America Lontana (FR) (King's Theatre)			Graham Lee
			Behind, ridden along and headway over 2f out, switched left to outer and driven over 1f out, kept on final furlong (op 33/1 tchd 25/1)
«	11 1	shd	A Momentofmadness 33/1	2	8-11	Charles Hills	76	*	*	—
			b c Elnadim (USA) - Royal Blush (Royal Applause)			William Buick
			Raced wide, led, ridden along 2f out, headed over 1f out, gradually weakened (op 50/1 tchd 33/1)
«	12 5	nk	Encantar 33/1	2	8-6	Ann Duffield	77	*	*	—	»
			b f Equiano (FR) - Enrapture (USA) (Lear Fan)			P J McDonald
			Always towards rear
«	13 16	2¼	Sign Of The Kodiac (IRE) 100/1	2	8-11	James Given	83	*	*	—	»
			b c Kodiac - Summer Magic (IRE) (Desert Sun)			Tom Eaves
			Prominent, ridden along over 2f out, weakened and held when hampered just over 1f out
«	14 11	¾	Operative 25/1	2	8-11	Ed de Giles	79	*	*	—	»
			ch c Pastoral Pursuits - Gilt Linked (Compton Place)			Jim Crowley
			Dwelt, always in rear
«	15 6	1¼	Rantan (IRE) 16/1	2	8-11	David Barron	81	*	*	—	»
			b g Kodiac - Peace Talks (Pivotal)			Graham Gibbons
			Prominent, ridden along halfway, soon weakened
«	16 17	¾	Excessable 8/1	2	8-11	Tim Easterby	94	*	*	—	»
			ch c Sakhee's Secret - Kummel Excess (IRE) (Exceed And Excel)			David Allan
			Held up towards rear, headway on outer over 2f out, in touch and ridden well over 1f out, soon driven weakened (op 10/1 tchd 8/1)
«	17 19	4½	Lathom 10/1	2	9-2	Richard Fahey	100	*	*	—	»
			b c Compton Place - Wigan Lane (Kheleyf)			Tony Hamilton
			Always towards rear
«	18 18	16	Rockley Point 50/1	2	8-11	Paul D'Arcy	76	*	*	—	»
			b c Canford Cliffs (IRE) - Statua (IRE) (Statoblest)			J F Egan
			Chased leaders, ridden along halfway, soon weakened (op 66/1 tchd 50/1)

18 ran TIME 1m 12.43s (slow by 2.43s) Total SP 125%
NON RUNNERS: Billy Roberts (IRE), Sir Dudley (IRE)
1st OWNER: Hamdan Al Maktoum BRED: Whitsbury Manor Stud TRAINER: William Haggas
2nd OWNER: J Nixon
3rd OWNER: CDM Developments (North West) Limited
TOTE WIN £2.70 PL £1.60, £5.40, £7.00; Ex £57.80; CSF £49.94

When trying to find the winner & indeed the 2nd & 3rd of this year's race it may pay to focus on the trainers that like to target this race & this meeting in general. Last year's winner was trained by William Haggas, who is an obvious starting point for any big race at the Ebor Festival, whilst the 2nd & 3rd were trained by Kevin Ryan & Tim Easterby respectively, both of whom fielded 2 runners in the race; the only other stable with multiple entries in the race was the Northern Powerhouse of Richard Fahey. The other large Northern stable, that of Mark Johnston, fielded just the one runner, the aforementioned 4th placed filly Delizia.

Of the 4 entries from the Haggas stable in this year's renewal none are by FSS but Ryan & Easterby have 2 possible representatives each from this group. Ryan often supports value sires at the sales (Sleeping Indian etc.) & whilst his pair of colts entered for the race by FSS (Dragon Pulse & Foxwedge) both realised £40k neither has a standout page to recommend them. Both of Easterby's entries are by Harbour Watch, who leads the way among FSS with 12 representatives, but neither catch the eye on pedigree.

Mark Johnston has only one entry in the race by a FSS, an unexceptional looking filly by Excelebration, which leaves Richard Fahey as the main hope for a Northern winner, the pick of his 3 entries by FSS being a £150k Mayson 1/2 brother to Penitent, Supplicant etc. who looks the most obvious antepost selection on paper. One other possible contender from the North could be the sole representative by Nathaniel in any of the 3 sales races; trained by the up-and-coming David O'Meara this filly was unsold at £65k but despite being a 1/2 sister to 6f Group 3 winning juvenile Dark Reckoning (by Equiano) you would be surprised if she herself had enough pace for this trip.

The only entry by a FSS who made more at the sales than Fahey's Mayson colt is the sole representative of Sepoy in the field, a £160k 1/2 brother to Deacon Blues trained by Charlie Hills for Saleh Al Homaizi & Imad Al Sagar; but if this colt is to run at this meeting then I'd kind of be hoping it would be in the Group 2 Gimcrack Stakes, won by the owners' Ajaya last year, rather than in a sales race. The 3rd most expensive entry is a £100k Bated Breath colt, one of three in the race by the sire, but trained by Kevin Prendergast for Shadwell in IRE it is unlikely he would run in GB.

The most likely contenders from the South are spearheaded by 10 entries from the Richard Hannon stable, but as is often the case with this yard their candidates look nothing out of the ordinary on paper. Of more interest are the Richard Hughes trained Requinto 1/2 brother to 2015 juvenile Scrutineer who fetched £65k & the Clive Cox trained Mayson 1/2 sister to Listed-winning & Group 3 placed juvenile Tigrilla who made £50k. But the 2 entries that most catch the eye for the Tricast behind the selection are Martyn Meade's £40k Helmet 1/2 sister to stable-mate Kurland, who was Listed-placed at this meeting last year & the £60k Dean Ivory trained Harbour Watch filly that has been named Sweet Sienna. Out of multiple Group-winning sprinter Look Busy, she is the most expensive of her sire's dozen entries in the race.

2016 DBS Premier Yearling Stakes Tricast

1st Unnamed (Mayson Colt x Pious) Richard Fahey

2nd Unnamed (Helmet Filly x Bunditten) Martyn Meade

3rd Sweet Sienna (Harbour Watch Filly x Look Busy) Dean Ivory